Future Dilemmas

Options to 2050 for Australia's population, technology, resources and environment

A CSIRO technical report by Barney Foran and Franzi Poldy, Resource Futures Program, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.

What impact will the size of Australia's future population have on the environment, the physical economy, the national infrastructure and our quality of life?

To gain insights into what the future might hold for Australia, researchers at CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems have developed new tools and approaches to modelling Australia's dynamic physical economy.

Future Dilemmas is a technical report that encapsulates the results of this research, which was commissioned by the Commonwealth Department of Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs (DIMIA).

It explores the future effect of three population/immigration scenarios on infrastructure, resources and the environment out to the year 2050.

• The first scenario considers what would happen if the net immigration rate was zero persons a year (described as the low scenario in the report).
• The second considers what happens if the rate was 70 000 a year (the current policy setting, and described as the medium scenario).
• The third examines the consequences of an immigration rate set at two thirds of one percent (0.67%) of the current population per year (described here as the high scenario).

The low scenario (zero immigration) represents the policy position of some environment groups. Based on current population growth, it would see a domestic population of 20 million by 2050.

The medium scenario gives a population of 25 million by 2050.

The high scenario (0.67% growth pa) is a position advocated by many business interests. It gives us 32 million people by 2050.

Future Dilemmas explores the consequences of these three scenarios for people, urban infrastructure, the natural environment, energy, water and a broad range of other issues.

Future Dilemmas: options to 2050 for Australia's population, technology, resources and environment was officially launched on Thursday 7 November 2002 by the Hon Philip Ruddock, Minister for Immigration and Multicultural and Indigenous Affairs.

For further information

Contact	:	Program Leader, Dr Daniel Walker
Address	:	CSIRO Resource Futures Program
Phone	:	(07) 4753 8580
Email	:	Daniel.Walker@csiro.au

WWW

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http://www.cse.csiro.au/research/futures